Is the 2030 target on track?
The government’s goal is for 9 in 10 GP visits to be bulk billed by 2030. In Apr–Jun 2026, 84.1% were.
Nationally: yes, if the past year’s rise holds
Over the year to Apr–Jun 2026, the share of GP visits bulk billed rose 4.9 points. Reaching 90% by mid-2030 needs about 1.5 points a year. At the past year’s pace, Australia would reach 90% in about 1.2 years.
That “if” matters. Most of the past year’s rise came after the incentive was extended to every Medicare card holder in November 2025. A one-off step up is not a trend, and the next few quarters will show whether the rate keeps climbing or levels off.
Figure 1.Share of GP visits bulk billed, Australia, by quarter, with two paths to 2030
Projections are straight lines from Apr–Jun 2026, not forecasts. Source: Medicare quarterly statistics, state and territory.
Area by area: 78 of 332 would fall short
Applying the same test to each of the 332 local areas: 93 already bulk bill at least 90% of GP visits, and 161 would reach 90% by mid-2030 if their past year’s rise continued. 78 would fall short even then.
Of the 78 areas that would fall short, 36 are among the least disadvantaged city areas and 33 among the middle-ranked city areas. Many start a long way below 90%, so even good gains leave them short. City areas are grouped as the AIHW groups them, by the ABS Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage: in the least disadvantaged, most neighbourhoods rank in the top fifth nationally.
Figure 2.Local areas by progress towards 90% of GP visits bulk billed by 2030
Furthest from the target
| Area | Now | Past year | Needed a year |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Canberra ACT | 51.6% | +0.3 | 9.6 |
| South Canberra ACT | 50.6% | +2.6 | 9.8 |
| Cottesloe - Claremont WA | 56.8% | +1.1 | 8.3 |
| Weston Creek ACT | 55.1% | +1.9 | 8.7 |
| Queanbeyan NSW | 61.5% | +0.9 | 7.1 |
| Tuggeranong & Uriarra - Namadgi ACT | 59.2% | +2.0 | 7.7 |
| Brisbane Inner - North Qld | 58.6% | +2.2 | 7.8 |
| Wynnum - Manly Qld | 64.4% | +1.1 | 6.4 |
| Perth City WA | 63.0% | +1.8 | 6.8 |
| Brisbane Inner - East Qld | 59.3% | +2.8 | 7.7 |
| Manly NSW | 60.6% | +2.5 | 7.3 |
| Woden Valley ACT | 56.6% | +3.5 | 8.3 |
Areas with at least 10,000 GP visits a quarter, ranked by how far they would land below 90% in mid-2030 at their past year’s pace. “Needed a year” is the rise each year from now to reach 90% by the June quarter of 2030. Source: Medicare quarterly statistics, SA3 summary.
How to read this
Each projection takes an area’s rise over the past year and assumes it carries on unchanged. That is a test, not a forecast. It answers one question: is the recent pace enough? Rates can’t pass 100%, areas near the top will slow, and a single year includes the one-off jump from the November 2025 change.
The target counts visits. As the visits-and-people analysis shows, the share of patients with every visit bulk billed is much lower, so reaching 90% of visits would still leave many people paying sometimes.